We all know about “the war.”  The DVD replacement has yet to be decided—will it be Sony’s Blu-Ray technology or Toshiba’s HD-DVD technology?

This week, the war came to the forefront again. With what Toshiba must surely view as “impeccable” timing (read: sarcasm), Warner Brothers announced their intent to drop HD-DVD from their future plans just days before the Consumer Electronics Show. It caused enough rumbles in the HD-DVD camp that they canceled their press conference for CES. As of later this spring, Warner will go exclusively with Blu-Ray. This isn’t small news. Warner was the only major studio that hadn’t picked a format—they were going with both. Their decision to go Blu-Ray leaves Paramount as the lone major content holder still going with HD-DVD.

MacWorld starts next week. One of the rumors (and it is just that—a rumor) is that Apple is going to announce support for Blu-Ray. Apple has been a member of the Blu-Ray coalition for quite some time, but they have, for all intents and purposes, sat on the sidelines while the battle raged.

Is the writing on the wall for HD-DVD? While it may still be premature to make the call (Microsoft is still in the HD-DVD camp…and we can all agree they are not a mom-and-pop operation), I will make the call.

Blu-Ray wins!

Actually, Blu-Ray should have won a long time ago. The storage capacity alone makes it a no-brainer. Currently, HD-DVD has 15GB/30GB discs. Blu-Ray has 25GB/50GB. HD-DVD has approved a standard for 51GB discs (I guess that single gig makes it the format to go with). Blu-Ray has the capability of putting 200GB on a disc.

What is HD-DVD’s advantage? Online content. Your HD-DVD player can connect to the Internet. Now, I may be long out of my teen years, but I hardly find that a compelling reason to go with HD-DVD. Regular DVDs often have bonus material—including the ability to get you to online content. Of all the DVDs I own that have “bonus” online content, have I ever accessed it?  Not even once.

Who is the real loser in all this? The conventional wisdom says it is the consumer. I disagree. Except for the early adopters, the consumer has sat and waited. To me, that is actually pretty impressive. The early adoption phase has simply lasted longer. The real losers are both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Neither has gained a foothold, and there is the real possibility that they’ll both get passed over for online content. That’s a lot of development money to be throwing down the drain.

Have we learned our lessons yet, Toshiba? Of course not. They are still fighting the battle. They will for some time.

Now let’s remember this a year from now and see if I was right or if I will be eating crow.